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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: codling moth [apple & pear]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Brunner and Hoyt 1987
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit
Upper threshold: 88 degrees Fahrenheit
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: first consistent capture of moths in pheromone traps
Starting/BIOFIX date: 4 1
Ending date: 10 31
Model validation status: Fully tested and in use
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 250 DDs after biofix: 1st generation, 3% egg hatch
2. 360 DDs after biofix: 1st generation, 20% egg hatch
3. 484 DDs after biofix: 1st generation, 50% egg hatch
4. 610 DDs after biofix: 1st generation, 75% egg hatch
5. 800 DDs after biofix: 1st generation, 95% egg hatch
6. 1000 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation, 5% adult emergence
7. 1260 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation, 7% egg hatch
8. 1460 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation, 30% egg hatch
9. 1580 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation, 50% egg hatch
10. 1750 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation, 75% egg hatch
11. 2100 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation, 99% egg hatch
12. 2220 DDs after biofix: 3rd generation, 3% egg hatch
13. 2430 DDs after biofix: 3rd generation, 20% egg hatch
14. 2620 DDs after biofix: 3rd generation, 50% egg hatch
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2016 MF24585 MILTON_FREEWATER_GROWERS Oliver Cherries OR Lat45.9717 Long:-118.3739 Elev:882
mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
4 10 72.80 47.40 0.00 10.46 10.5 * START *
4 11 76.00 47.20 0.00 11.97 22.4
4 12 67.50 50.70 0.02 9.10 31.5
4 13 63.60 48.20 0.00 6.16 37.7
4 14 63.20 42.30 0.00 4.82 42.5
4 15 64.80 43.60 0.00 5.74 48.3
4 16 69.50 35.50 0.00 6.72 55.0
4 17 73.60 37.50 0.00 8.79 63.8
4 18 80.00 39.50 0.00 12.08 75.9 Vx
4 19 79.90 43.30 0.00 12.84 88.7
4 20 82.20 43.20 0.00 13.93 102.6
4 21 76.80 50.90 0.00 13.85 116.5
4 22 75.60 52.10 0.00 13.85 130.3
4 23 69.60 52.40 0.00 11.00 141.3
4 24 65.70 49.40 0.00 7.60 148.9
4 25 65.50 39.60 0.00 5.48 154.4 Vx
4 26 63.80 41.50 0.00 4.97 159.4
4 27 60.00 47.20 0.03 4.17 163.5
4 28 68.00 48.50 0.00 8.43 172.0
4 29 57.40 48.90 0.03 3.32 175.3
4 30 66.20 47.50 0.02 7.24 182.5
5 1 74.60 40.20 0.00 9.69 192.2
5 2 85.00 42.80 0.00 15.18 207.4 Vx
5 3 86.10 62.60 0.00 24.35 231.8
5 4 77.70 57.20 0.00 17.45 249.2
5 5 69.30 45.60 0.00 8.27 257.5 Hx Hn 1st generation, 3% egg hatch
5 6 75.00 51.20 0.00 13.10 270.6
5 7 79.60 52.10 0.00 15.85 286.4
5 8 77.00 57.80 0.00 17.40 303.8
5 9 65.50 47.70 0.00 6.96 310.8 Vx
5 10 71.10 37.90 0.00 7.73 318.5
5 11 82.00 46.10 0.00 14.60 333.1 Vx Vn
5 12 83.40 57.40 0.00 20.40 353.5
5 13 80.70 45.70 0.00 13.85 367.4 1st generation, 20% egg hatch
5 14 67.50 51.80 0.07 9.65 377.0
5 15 58.80 51.70 0.11 5.25 382.3
5 16 72.00 52.00 0.01 12.00 394.3 Vx
5 17 75.70 49.80 0.00 12.76 407.0
5 18 82.20 53.80 0.00 18.00 425.0
5 19 67.80 49.30 0.00 8.61 433.6
5 20 61.40 40.90 0.00 3.86 437.5
5 21 63.60 44.40 0.01 5.32 442.8
5 22 68.50 50.30 0.00 9.40 452.2
5 23 70.80 50.70 0.00 10.75 463.0
5 24 74.00 49.50 0.00 11.78 474.7
5 25 76.90 47.60 0.00 12.54 487.3 1st generation, 50% egg hatch
5 26 70.80 50.80 0.00 10.80 498.1
5 27 69.80 50.90 0.00 10.35 508.4
5 28 76.10 48.20 0.00 12.34 520.8
5 29 79.60 52.60 0.00 16.10 536.9
5 30 76.30 48.20 0.00 12.44 549.3 Vx
5 31 84.80 40.80 0.00 14.63 563.9 Vx
6 1 85.20 49.50 0.00 17.37 581.3
6 2 78.10 60.80 0.00 19.45 600.8
6 3 86.40 57.20 0.00 21.80 622.6 1st generation, 75% egg hatch
6 4 89.00 50.30 0.00 19.58 642.1
6 5 91.20 54.30 0.00 22.35 664.5
6 6 99.20 58.30 0.00 26.19 690.7 Vx
6 7 94.00 64.20 0.00 27.93 718.6
6 8 87.70 66.90 0.00 27.30 745.9
6 9 77.20 56.40 0.00 16.80 762.7
6 10 67.70 53.30 0.01 10.50 773.2
6 11 72.00 46.10 0.00 9.70 782.9
6 12 77.30 44.50 0.00 11.87 794.8
6 13 74.90 53.00 0.00 13.95 808.7 Vx 1st generation, 95% egg hatch
6 14 69.30 50.10 0.00 9.70 818.4
6 15 69.30 46.50 0.00 8.49 826.9
6 16 69.60 45.30 0.01 8.35 835.3
6 17 79.10 42.50 0.00 12.27 847.5
6 18 66.80 52.50 0.06 9.65 857.2
6 19 76.30 42.50 0.00 10.93 868.1
6 20 80.20 46.80 0.00 13.92 882.1
6 21 80.50 58.70 0.00 19.60 901.7
6 22 87.20 45.70 0.00 17.04 918.7
6 23 81.30 59.80 0.00 20.55 939.2
6 24 75.60 54.00 0.02 14.80 954.0
6 25 81.50 48.10 0.00 14.99 969.0
6 26 87.70 46.80 0.00 17.63 986.7
6 27 93.50 60.50 0.00 26.03 1012.7 Vx Vn 2nd generation, 5% adult emergence
6 28 91.20 59.30 0.00 24.82 1037.5
6 29 94.60 63.50 0.00 27.73 1065.3 Vx
6 30 92.00 66.20 0.00 28.42 1093.7 Vx Vn
7 1 89.00 63.10 0.00 25.97 1119.6 Vx Vn
7 2 90.00 63.10 0.00 26.32 1146.0 Vx Vn
7 3 85.60 64.80 0.00 25.20 1171.2 Vx Vn
7 4 80.50 57.60 0.00 19.05 1190.2 Vx Vn
7 5 78.70 52.30 0.00 15.50 1205.7
7 6 81.40 60.50 0.00 20.95 1226.7
7 7 81.50 60.50 0.00 21.00 1247.7 Vx Vn
7 8 77.80 60.30 0.05 19.05 1266.7 Vx 2nd generation, 7% egg hatch
7 9 77.60 57.50 0.06 17.55 1284.3
7 10 69.90 57.20 0.00 13.55 1297.8
7 11 80.80 59.00 0.00 19.90 1317.7 Vx Vn
7 12 80.20 56.30 0.02 18.25 1336.0
7 13 84.30 55.40 0.00 19.85 1355.8
7 14 89.80 53.00 0.00 21.23 1377.0 Vx
7 15 81.40 57.00 0.00 19.20 1396.2 Vx
7 16 83.70 58.00 0.00 20.85 1417.1 Vx
7 17 88.10 55.40 0.00 21.75 1438.8 Vx
7 18 80.80 59.10 0.00 19.95 1458.8 Vx
7 19 82.90 56.80 0.00 19.85 1478.6 2nd generation, 30% egg hatch
7 20 87.70 58.90 0.00 23.30 1501.9 Vx
7 21 95.20 52.10 0.00 22.38 1524.3 Vx
7 22 83.00 64.50 0.00 23.75 1548.1 Vx Vn
7 23 84.10 55.90 0.00 20.00 1568.1 Vx
7 24 90.20 51.90 0.00 20.82 1588.9 Vx 2nd generation, 50% egg hatch
7 25 96.80 58.40 0.00 25.77 1614.7 Vx
7 26 95.90 69.30 0.00 30.71 1645.4 Vx
7 27 95.20 69.40 0.00 30.64 1676.0 Vx Vn
7 28 99.40 63.40 0.00 28.58 1704.6 Vx
7 29 101.70 63.60 0.00 29.02 1733.6 Vx
7 30 94.70 71.80 0.00 31.66 1765.3 Vx Vn 2nd generation, 75% egg hatch
7 31 86.90 62.40 0.00 24.65 1789.9 Vx Vn
8 1 90.90 57.00 0.00 23.59 1813.5 Vx Vn
8 2 78.70 57.30 0.00 18.00 1831.5 Vx
8 3 84.00 54.10 0.00 19.05 1850.6 Vx
8 4 90.20 50.00 0.00 19.88 1870.4
8 5 93.70 53.50 0.00 22.68 1893.1 Vx
8 6 85.60 63.50 0.00 24.55 1917.7
8 7 83.10 60.50 0.00 21.80 1939.5 Vx
8 8 77.20 51.30 0.00 14.25 1953.7 Vx
8 9 72.80 54.70 0.00 13.75 1967.5
8 10 84.30 53.90 0.00 19.10 1986.6 Vx
8 11 90.30 57.60 0.00 23.69 2010.2 Vx Vn
8 12 95.70 61.50 0.00 27.01 2037.3 Vx Vn
8 13 97.20 65.20 0.00 29.04 2066.3 Vx Vn
8 14 95.60 69.90 0.00 30.94 2097.2 Vx Vn
8 15 95.90 63.20 0.00 27.86 2125.1 Vx Vn 2nd generation, 99% egg hatch
8 16 95.70 59.30 0.00 25.96 2151.1 Vx
8 17 91.20 59.40 0.00 24.86 2175.9
8 18 96.70 58.80 0.00 25.94 2201.9 Vx
8 19 88.60 57.20 0.00 22.86 2224.7 3rd generation, 3% egg hatch
8 20 91.10 52.50 0.00 21.42 2246.2
8 21 93.10 52.40 0.00 21.97 2268.1
8 22 78.00 52.80 0.00 15.40 2283.5
8 23 82.00 50.10 0.00 16.05 2299.6
8 24 87.10 52.40 0.00 19.75 2319.3 Vx
8 25 88.40 50.20 0.00 19.28 2338.6
8 26 91.90 49.40 0.00 20.17 2358.8
8 27 91.80 60.70 0.00 25.68 2384.5
8 28 89.20 63.30 0.00 26.14 2410.6 Vx
8 29 94.40 54.60 0.00 23.39 2434.0 Vx 3rd generation, 20% egg hatch
8 30 82.20 62.40 0.00 22.30 2456.3
8 31 85.00 55.50 0.00 20.25 2476.5
9 1 80.30 60.60 0.00 20.45 2497.0
9 2 76.40 55.50 0.00 15.95 2512.9
9 3 73.30 56.60 0.00 14.95 2527.9
9 4 76.10 46.70 0.00 11.87 2539.8
9 5 75.80 47.40 0.00 11.94 2551.7 Vx
9 6 64.60 54.50 0.00 9.55 2561.3
9 7 75.80 54.50 0.00 15.15 2576.4
9 8 77.10 57.70 0.00 17.40 2593.8
9 9 76.80 44.30 0.00 11.58 2605.4
9 10 85.10 45.10 0.00 15.84 2621.2 3rd generation, 50% egg hatch
9 11 77.90 53.10 0.00 15.50 2636.7 Vx
9 12 75.20 42.90 0.00 10.50 2647.2 Vx
9 13 68.90 36.80 0.00 6.61 2653.8
9 14 76.40 44.70 0.00 11.49 2665.3
9 15 81.30 45.50 0.00 14.09 2679.4
9 16 85.70 46.90 0.00 16.67 2696.1
9 17 68.60 61.90 0.04 15.25 2711.3
9 18 73.00 56.80 0.00 14.90 2726.2
9 19 68.10 57.90 0.00 13.00 2739.2 Vx
9 20 67.00 48.00 0.00 7.78 2747.0
9 21 67.20 42.30 0.00 6.63 2753.6 Vx
9 22 56.80 47.20 0.00 2.66 2756.3
9 23 66.70 51.00 0.00 8.85 2765.1
9 24 70.10 52.20 0.00 11.15 2776.3
9 25 80.60 44.00 0.00 13.35 2789.6
9 26 82.90 46.30 0.00 15.10 2804.7 Vx
9 27 83.00 55.20 0.00 19.10 2823.8
9 28 75.00 49.00 0.00 12.08 2835.9
9 29 78.70 47.10 0.00 13.28 2849.2
9 30 74.40 49.90 0.00 12.15 2861.4
10 1 70.00 45.90 0.00 8.68 2870.0
10 2 66.10 38.30 0.00 5.58 2875.6
10 3 68.70 48.00 0.00 8.62 2884.2
10 4 66.30 43.70 0.06 6.45 2890.7
10 5 63.50 48.10 0.00 6.09 2896.8
10 6 64.80 51.10 0.00 7.95 2904.7
10 7 64.00 54.20 0.00 9.10 2913.8 Vx
10 8 72.50 48.60 0.00 10.69 2924.5 Vx
10 9 66.10 56.60 0.00 11.35 2935.9
10 10 61.80 48.80 0.04 5.46 2941.3
10 11 57.70 37.70 0.00 2.12 2943.4
10 12 56.60 29.60 0.00 1.42 2944.9
10 13 61.10 42.10 0.02 3.87 2948.7
10 14 68.80 49.10 0.04 9.03 2957.8
10 15 59.60 49.30 0.05 4.53 2962.3
10 16 64.00 49.00 0.00 6.61 2968.9
10 17 60.60 49.50 0.00 5.10 2974.0 Vx
10 18 59.00 46.10 0.00 3.49 2977.5
10 19 65.40 38.60 0.00 5.31 2982.8
10 20 68.10 55.50 0.06 11.80 2994.6
10 21 55.40 51.10 0.09 3.25 2997.9
10 22 60.40 40.60 0.00 3.41 3001.3
10 23 56.20 42.40 0.00 1.86 3003.1
10 24 59.90 43.60 0.00 3.53 3006.6 Vx
10 25 64.90 48.80 0.01 6.99 3013.6
10 26 55.10 52.10 0.00 3.60 3017.2
10 27 55.70 50.60 0.00 3.15 3020.4 Vx
10 28 48.00 42.10 0.00 0.00 3020.4 Vx
10 29 48.70 46.10 0.05 0.00 3020.4
10 30 48.40 44.70 0.07 0.00 3020.4
10 31 56.80 46.70 0.00 2.58 3023.0
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 MF24585 PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
codling moth model - Brunner and Hoyt 1987Location: 2016 MF24585 Oliver Cherries OR Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME Date | DDs | Event |
5-5-16 | 257 | 1st generation, 3% egg hatch |
5-13-16 | 367 | 1st generation, 20% egg hatch |
5-25-16 | 487 | 1st generation, 50% egg hatch |
6-3-16 | 623 | 1st generation, 75% egg hatch |
6-13-16 | 809 | 1st generation, 95% egg hatch |
6-27-16 | 1013 | 2nd generation, 5% adult emergence |
7-8-16 | 1267 | 2nd generation, 7% egg hatch |
7-19-16 | 1479 | 2nd generation, 30% egg hatch |
7-24-16 | 1589 | 2nd generation, 50% egg hatch |
7-30-16 | 1765 | 2nd generation, 75% egg hatch |
8-15-16 | 2125 | 2nd generation, 99% egg hatch |
8-19-16 | 2225 | 3rd generation, 3% egg hatch |
8-29-16 | 2434 | 3rd generation, 20% egg hatch |
9-10-16 | 2621 | 3rd generation, 50% egg hatch |